Three Scenarios on FYRΟΜ

Skopje Koha e Re 01 Sep 10 p 3

Report by Afrim Tanallari: “Three Scenarios on [FYR]Macedonia”
Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski’s resignation along the lines of the Croatian model; a snap parliamentary election along with a referendum on a compromise with Greece; and a technical or an expert government are the three possible scenarios that might happen if [FYR]Macedonia fails to resolve the name issue by November, when the next Lisbon NATO summit is set to take place. 
On Tuesday party sources are cited as telling Koha e Re that these three options have been suggested to Gruevski by the intellectual wing of the VMRO-DPMNE.  Intellectuals within the ethnic [FYR]Macedonian ruling party are said to have told the prime minister to tender his resignation in order to leave some room for the formation of a technical government, which would consist of experts from all the most relevant parties and would sign an agreement to end the two-decade name dispute with the southern neighbor.  The other option is the Croation model, which implies ceding the post to one of the VMRO-DPMNE deputy prime ministers, who would have to be less influential than Gruevski, as he would run the risk of remaining outside the party, just like Ivo Sanader [former Croatian prime minister].  And the third option is to have Gruevski accept a name compromise, which would later be approved through a referendum and followed by an early election.
VMRO-DPMNE officials are rejecting these options and regard them as unfounded.  “Mere speculation,” party Assembly deputy Ilija Dimovski said.
On the other hand, the ethnic Albanian coalition partner, the BDI [Democratic Union for Integration], appears to be losing patience with waiting for flexibility on the part of the prime minister.  Following this party’s failed attempt to rebel and quit the coalition in order to trigger a political crisis, this time Ahmeti’s party says that it does not plan to show the flexibility and constructiveness that international diplomats are demanding with a view to creating the proper climate for a compromise on the name issue. 
BDI members say that in all the meetings that leader Ahmeti has had with foreign ambassadors and senior US and EU officials, he has been given credit for the constructiveness that he has shown so far.  Party spokesperson Ermira Mehmeti says that, principally, her party does not consider that an expert or a technical cabinet would fill the void, for two particular reasons.
“First, the ethnic [FYR]Macedonian opposition is constantly calling on the VMRO-DPMNE to reach a compromise and has stated that it would back the prime minister in making such a tough decision.  Second, ethnic Albanian parties, on the other hand, are also unanimous on this and they, too, would refrain from making matters worse for the prime minister.  Meanwhile, the VMRO-DPMNE has absolute and more than sufficient power and legitimacy to achieve a compromise,” Mehmeti pointed out. 
Still, she foresees a hot fall with a lot of interesting moments.
“It is reported that there may be some new elements in relation to the name issue at the UN General Assembly session scheduled for September, and after that comes the NATO summit in November,” she said. 
Unless the name row is settled by November, Mehmeti warns that the BDI would return to its electorate’s interests and it would show no flexibility toward the others any longer. 
“What the BDI knows for sure is that in the event that no resolution of the name issue is reached by November, this party will revert to its electorate’s priorities and interests and will not be ready to show flexibility toward others,” she underlined. 
Likewise, ethnic [FYR]Macedonian opposition leader Branko Crvenkovski has threatened that he would stage street rallies to seek a snap election if the Lisbon NATO summit turns out to be yet another failure for the county’s EU-NATO integration prospects.

The prefix [FYR] is used solely by the blog and not of the original source. Bold text is ours

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